Understanding Mangrove Forest Capacity for Resilience

This project measures whether mangrove forests in Everglades National Park can establish and persist as sea level rises and freshwater flows change, and where storms or fire could shift a vegetated coast toward open water.

Dates
Oct 2026 – Aug 2029
Funding Amount
$740,016
Funding
National Park Service, South Florida / Caribbean Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit
Understanding Mangrove Forest Capacity for Resilience
Figure 1. Field photograph from the mangrove resilience project

Scaling from Plots to the Landscape

This project links mangrove stands to the surrounding coast through one continuous cycle: dispersal, establishment, growth, and reproduction. Conditions within a stand determine whether arriving propagules establish, grow into trees, and reproduce. Reproduction replenishes the local supply of propagules, while water moving across the landscape determines whether they remain nearby or reach other coastal wetlands.

Comparing the two scales reveals the driver at each step. Patterns of establishment, growth, and reproduction show where the life cycle succeeds or stalls. Models of flow and connectivity show the routes, barriers, and sources that carry propagules under ordinary and storm conditions. A forest may fail because local conditions prevent recruitment, or because it is disconnected from the propagules needed to begin the cycle again.”

Team

Principal investigator

Co-principal investigators

  • Daniel Gann
  • Wei Huang
  • Jed Redwine

Other contributors

  • Himadri Biswas
  • Katherine Castrillon

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